Back in late August I wrote that the Fed was meeting on September 16 and that nobody should assume they knew which way it would go. Well, the meeting happened. The Fed raised rates — the first increase since 2023 — and mortgage rates followed them up.
I’ve had five or six conversations in the last week that all started the same way: “So is this the moment we should just stop looking?” That’s a fair question and it deserves a real answer instead of a sales pitch.
So here’s where things actually stand, with the numbers, what they mean for a payment on a normal Shasta County house, and what I’d tell you if you were sitting across from me at the office.
What the Fed actually did on September 16
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds rate by a quarter point, to a target range of 3.75%–4%. That’s the first hike since July 2023, and markets had largely seen it coming — inflation readings had been stubborn through the summer.
The part that got less attention is the forecast. In the projections released the same day, 16 of the 18 committee participants indicated they see room for another increase before the end of the year, with year-end estimates clustered between 4.1% and 4.4%.
I’m not going to pretend I know what the Fed does in December. Nobody does, including the Fed. But it’s honest to say the direction of travel right now is up rather than down, and it’s worth planning around that instead of waiting on a cut that may not show up.
Why your mortgage rate moved — even though the Fed doesn’t set it
This trips up a lot of people, and it’s worth clearing up, because it cuts both ways.
The Fed does not set your mortgage rate. The federal funds rate is an overnight bank-to-bank rate. Your 30-year fixed mortgage is priced off the bond market — mostly the 10-year Treasury and mortgage-backed securities. That’s why you’ll sometimes see the Fed cut and mortgage rates go up, which has genuinely happened before and confused everybody.
What moves your rate is what bond investors expect about inflation and growth over the next decade. Right now those expectations have shifted, and the mortgage market moved with them.
Here’s the actual track, from Freddie Mac’s weekly survey:
- August 27, 2026: 6.66%
- September 3: 6.71%
- September 10: 6.76%
- September 17: 6.95%
That 6.95% is roughly a 20-month high. A year ago this week the same survey read 6.26%. Daily trackers have run higher than the weekly survey — Mortgage News Daily had the 30-year fixed around 7.19% on September 21 — because the weekly number lags a few days.
What that looks like on a real Redding payment
Abstract percentages don’t help anybody. Let’s put it on a house.
Shasta County’s median sale price was $385,000 in August. Say you put 10% down — a $346,500 loan. Principal and interest only, no taxes or insurance:
- At 6.66% (late August): about $2,227/month
- At 6.95% (mid-September): about $2,294/month
- At 6.26% (a year ago): about $2,136/month
So the September move costs roughly $67 a month on that loan. Compared to last fall, about $158 a month.
I want to be straight with you: that’s real money, and I’m not going to wave it off. But it’s also not the catastrophe the headlines imply. On a 20% down loan the September change is closer to $60. For most buyers I work with, it’s a conversation about which house, not whether to buy a house at all.
And the thing people forget: you are not married to this rate. You’re married to the house. If rates come down in 2027 or 2028, you refinance. If they don’t, you had a fixed payment while rents kept climbing. Buying at a higher rate on a house you’ll keep for ten years is a very different decision than buying at a higher rate on a house you’ll flip in eighteen months.
What Shasta County’s own numbers say
Here’s where the national story and the local story part ways a little, and this is the part I think matters most.
Nationally, August existing-home sales came in at a 3.98 million annual pace — down 2.0% from July and 1.2% from a year ago. National inventory climbed to 4.9 months of supply, the highest in more than ten years. The national median was $429,100, up 1.6% year over year.
Shasta County didn’t follow that script:
- Median sale price: $385,000 in August, up from $357,000 a year ago — a 7.8% increase.
- Closed sales: 233 in August vs. 228 a year ago. Year-to-date we’re at 1,791 sales vs. 1,708, up about 4.9%.
- Active listings: 946, down from 1,059 last August — about 10.7% fewer homes for sale.
- Median days on market: 66, down from 75.
Read those together and you get a picture that’s almost the opposite of the national one. The country is building up inventory. We’re working through ours. Fewer homes on the market, more of them selling, and selling faster.
That’s not me cheerleading. It’s a small county with limited new construction and steady demand from people moving up here from more expensive parts of California. Tight supply is just what that produces.
If you’re buying this fall
Get re-approved, not just approved. If your pre-approval letter was written in July, the number on it is stale. Call your lender this week and get a current figure so you’re shopping the right price range instead of falling in love with a house you no longer qualify for.
Ask specifically about a rate buydown paid by the seller. With days on market sitting at 66, a seller who’s been listed nine or ten weeks is often more willing to buy your rate down than to cut the price — and the buydown usually helps your monthly payment more than an equivalent price reduction does.
And don’t skip the fall and winter. Fewer buyers are out between now and February. Less competition is worth something.
If you’re selling this fall
Price it right the first time. In a market with 946 active listings, buyers have options, and an overpriced house just makes the correctly-priced one down the street look like a deal.
Be ready to help with the rate. Concessions toward a buydown or closing costs are doing a lot of work right now, and they often cost you less than the price cut you’d otherwise end up taking.
And if you’ve been telling yourself you’ll list in spring when rates are better — maybe. But spring also brings every other seller who’s been waiting, and right now inventory is down 10.7% from a year ago. There’s an argument for going now while there’s less to compete with.
Let’s talk about your situation specifically
None of this is advice about your house or your purchase, because I don’t know your numbers yet. Every family’s math is different, and a 6.95% rate is a dealbreaker for some people and a non-issue for others.
If you want to sit down and run your actual situation — what you’d net on a sale, what a payment would really look like, whether waiting makes sense for you — I’m happy to do that with no pressure attached. That’s the whole job.
530-953-1100 · jcreteam.com/contact · [email protected]
Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (weeks ending Aug. 27 – Sept. 17, 2026); Federal Reserve FOMC statement and Summary of Economic Projections, Sept. 16, 2026; Mortgage News Daily daily rate index, Sept. 21, 2026; National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales report, August 2026; Shasta County MLS closed-sales and inventory data, August 2026. Payment figures are principal and interest only and do not include taxes, insurance, or mortgage insurance.
About Justin Cartwright — Justin Cartwright is a third-generation Shasta County resident and licensed REALTOR® with Waterman Real Estate in Redding, CA. He and the JCRE Team specialize in helping buyers and sellers navigate the Redding and greater Shasta County market with honest guidance and genuine care. DRE License #02093872 · Waterman Real Estate, 1760 Churn Creek Rd, Redding, CA 96002 · 530-953-1100.
