“How much house can I afford?” is the question I hear more than any other, from first-time buyers renting in Enterprise to families relocating from the Bay Area or out of state. It’s a fair question, and the answer is almost never the number an online calculator spits out.
Those calculators usually skip what makes Redding different, like our property tax bonds and our insurance market. So let’s walk through it with real 2026 numbers.
Rates just moved, too. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% on September 24, 2026, up from 6.95% the week before and the first time above 7% since January 2025. I’ll use that rate for the math below.
Start With the Shasta County Median Price
According to Redfin, the median sale price in Shasta County was $391,352 for the three months ending July 2026, up 7.3% from a year earlier. Homes sold in a median of 33 days.
For round numbers, I’ll use a $391,000 home as our example. Plenty of Redding homes sell for less or more, but the median is a good anchor.
What Goes Into Your Monthly Payment in Redding
Lenders look at your full housing payment, often called PITI: principal, interest, taxes, and insurance. Mortgage insurance and HOA dues get added on top when they apply. Here’s what each piece looks like locally:
- Principal and interest: Driven by your loan amount and rate. Keep in mind the Freddie Mac average assumes 20% down and excellent credit, so your quote may differ.
- Property taxes: California’s base rate is 1% of your purchase price under Prop 13, plus voter-approved school and college bonds. In Redding, the total runs about 1.04% to 1.12%, depending on your school district. I’m using 1.05% here, which works out to about $342 a month on a $391,000 home.
- Homeowners insurance: This is the wild card in Shasta County. Local lenders report that smaller in-town homes often run roughly $900 to $2,000 a year, while homes on acreage in higher fire zones commonly run $5,000 or more. I’m using $150 a month as an in-town example.
- Mortgage insurance: Required on conventional loans with less than 20% down (PMI) and on FHA loans (MIP). More on that below.
- HOA dues: Many Redding neighborhoods have none, but some subdivisions and condos do. My examples leave HOA out.
One more Redding-specific note: after you close, the county sends a supplemental property tax bill for the difference between the seller’s old assessed value and your purchase price. It goes to you, not your lender, so plan for it.
The Monthly Payment at Four Down Payment Levels
Here’s the estimated monthly payment on a $391,000 home at 7.03% on a 30-year fixed. Each scenario includes $342 for taxes and $150 for insurance.
3% down, conventional ($11,730 down)
- Loan amount: $379,270
- Principal and interest: $2,531
- PMI (estimated): $265
- Estimated total: about $3,290 a month
3.5% down, FHA ($13,685 down)
- Base loan $377,315, plus the 1.75% upfront MIP financed in, for a total loan of $383,918
- Principal and interest: $2,562
- Annual MIP at 0.55%: $173
- Estimated total: about $3,225 a month
10% down, conventional ($39,100 down)
- Loan amount: $351,900
- Principal and interest: $2,348
- PMI (estimated): $176
- Estimated total: about $3,015 a month
20% down, conventional ($78,200 down)
- Loan amount: $312,800
- Principal and interest: $2,087
- PMI: none
- Estimated total: about $2,580 a month
For PMI, I used Freddie Mac’s guideline that it typically runs $30 to $70 a month per $100,000 borrowed. I used the high end for 3% down and the middle for 10% down, since your credit score and down payment move that number. Conventional PMI can come off once you reach 20% equity. With FHA and less than 10% down, MIP stays for the life of the loan unless you refinance.
How Much Income Do You Need in Redding?
This is where debt-to-income ratio (DTI) comes in. It compares your monthly debts to your gross monthly income, before taxes.
- The classic 28/36 guideline: Keep housing at or below 28% of gross income, and all debts (housing plus car, student loans, credit cards) at or below 36%. It’s a comfortable target, not a lender rule.
- FHA: HUD’s standard benchmark for manually underwritten loans is 31% housing and 43% total, with room to go higher when you have strengths like cash reserves.
- Conventional: Fannie Mae allows up to 50% total DTI on loans run through its automated underwriting system, depending on your overall file.
Using the 28% guideline, here’s the gross household income each scenario above would call for:
- 3% down: about $141,000 a year
- 3.5% down FHA: about $138,000 a year
- 10% down: about $129,000 a year
- 20% down: about $110,500 a year
Those numbers can look steep. Lenders often approve well past 28%, but being able to borrow more doesn’t mean you should. I’d rather you buy a home you can enjoy than one that keeps you up at night.
Flip it around, and a household earning $90,000 a year keeping housing at 28% ($2,100 a month) with 10% down lands around a $266,000 purchase price using the same tax and insurance assumptions. Stretch to FHA’s 31%, or put more down, and that number climbs. That’s why getting pre-approved with a local lender before you shop matters so much.
Why Insurance Can Make or Break Your Budget Here
Insurance deserves its own spotlight in Shasta County. The California FAIR Plan, the state’s insurer of last resort, is raising rates about 29.1% on average starting October 15, 2026. A Redding insurance agent told KRCR local increases are averaging 30% to 40%.
Here’s why that matters for affordability: if a home’s insurance comes in at $500 a month instead of $150, that extra $350 would take roughly $15,000 more in annual income to cover at the 28% guideline.
My advice: get an insurance quote on the specific address before you write an offer, especially on acreage. Two homes a mile apart can get very different quotes.
Ways to Stretch Your Budget in 2026
If the numbers feel tight, you have options:
- Rate buydowns: Paying points upfront (each point is 1% of the loan amount) lowers your rate. Temporary buydowns, like a 2-1, lower your payment for the first couple of years. For scale, a rate half a point lower cuts about $104 a month off the principal and interest on the 20%-down loan above.
- Seller credits: Sellers can pay toward your closing costs or a buydown. Conventional loans allow 3% to 9% depending on your down payment, and FHA allows up to 6%. Depending on the home and how long it’s been on the market, it’s often worth asking.
- Down payment assistance: Programs like CalHFA can help if savings are the hurdle. We’ve covered those in an earlier post.
- Loan limits give you room: In 2026, the conforming loan limit in Shasta County is $832,750 and the FHA limit is $541,287, so at local price points most buyers aren’t bumping into caps.
Let’s Figure Out Your Real Number
Every buyer’s situation is different: your income, debts, credit, savings, and the specific home all shape the answer. The examples above are a starting point, not a pre-approval.
If you’re thinking about buying in Redding or anywhere in Shasta County, I’d be glad to sit down with you, connect you with a trusted local lender, and help you find a home that fits your life and your budget. No pressure, just good information.
530-953-1100 · jcreteam.com/contact · [email protected]
About Justin Cartwright — Justin Cartwright is a third-generation Shasta County resident and licensed REALTOR® with Waterman Real Estate in Redding, CA. He and the JCRE Team specialize in helping buyers and sellers navigate the Redding and greater Shasta County market with honest guidance and genuine care. DRE License #02093872 · Waterman Real Estate, 1760 Churn Creek Rd, Redding, CA 96002 · 530-953-1100.
Sources: Freddie Mac PMMS (Sept. 24, 2026); Redfin Shasta County Housing Market (three months ending July 2026); Shasta County Auditor-Controller FY 2025–26 tax rates via Von Mortgage; Freddie Mac My Home, “Breaking Down PMI”; HUD FHA MIP schedule and Handbook 4000.1; Fannie Mae Selling Guide (DTI and interested party contributions); FHFA 2026 conforming loan limits; KRCR (California FAIR Plan rate increase).
