On Wednesday, October 28, the Federal Reserve announced it was holding its benchmark rate steady at 3.75% to 4%. After the quarter-point hike in September, a lot of folks in Redding were bracing for another one. It didn’t come — at least not this time.
I’ve had a few clients text me since the announcement asking some version of the same question: “So does this mean mortgage rates are going down?” The short answer is no, not automatically. The longer answer is more useful, and it depends on whether you’re buying, selling, or already own a home here in Shasta County.
Here’s how I’m reading it, and what I’d be doing right now in your shoes.
What the Fed Actually Decided on October 28
The vote was 10–2 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.75%–4%. Both people who voted “no” — Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack — wanted another quarter-point increase. Nobody voted for a cut.
The Fed’s statement described the economy as “expanding at a strong pace,” with job gains keeping up with the workforce. But it also said plainly that inflation “remains elevated,” and that it wants more information before deciding its next move.
That tells me two things. First, the Fed isn’t in a hurry to raise again. Second, it isn’t anywhere close to cutting. The next meeting is in December, and it’s fair to say a hike is still on the table if inflation doesn’t cooperate.
The Fed Doesn’t Set Your Mortgage Rate
This is the part that trips people up, so it’s worth a minute.
The federal funds rate is what banks charge each other overnight. It directly moves things like credit cards, HELOCs, and savings accounts. Thirty-year mortgage rates are a different animal — they track longer-term bond yields, which react to what investors expect inflation and the economy to do over years, not weeks.
So a “hold” doesn’t flip a switch on mortgages. Sometimes rates even move the opposite way of what you’d expect after a Fed meeting, because the market already priced in the news ahead of time.
Where Mortgage Rates Stand Right Now
According to Freddie Mac’s most recent weekly survey, the 30-year fixed averaged 7.32% as of October 22, down from 7.40% the week before. That was the first weekly drop after a long run of increases. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.68%.
For perspective, a year ago the 30-year was sitting at 6.19%. So rates are more than a full point higher than this time last year. That’s real, and I’m not going to pretend otherwise.
Here’s what that difference looks like on a typical Redding purchase. Shasta County’s typical home value is running around $370,000 (Zillow, August 2026). With 10% down, you’d borrow about $333,000:
- At 6.19%, principal and interest is about $2,037/month
- At 7.32%, it’s about $2,287/month
That’s roughly $250 a month more for the same house. Property taxes, insurance, and any mortgage insurance come on top of that, so talk to a lender for your full number.
A fresh Freddie Mac reading comes out every Thursday, so these numbers move. But the big picture — rates in the low 7s, with the Fed on hold — is likely what we’re working with through the holidays.
If You’re Buying in Redding This Winter
I know 7% rates feel discouraging. But here’s what I’m seeing on the ground: less competition, more negotiating room. Homes in our area have been taking close to two months to sell, and there are more price reductions than there were a year ago. Late fall and winter are traditionally quieter in Redding, and the buyers who show up now tend to be serious.
A few things I’d focus on:
- Get a real pre-approval, not a quick estimate. Know your payment at today’s rate, not last year’s.
- Ask about seller credits. In this market, a seller paying toward a rate buydown or closing costs is a very reasonable request.
- Don’t wait for a perfect rate. If rates do come down later, refinancing is an option. You can’t go back and renegotiate the price you paid.
The right home at a fair price, with a payment you’re comfortable with today, is still a good move.
If You’re Selling in Shasta County
The Fed’s hold doesn’t change much for sellers in the short term, but it does reinforce what we’ve been seeing: buyers are payment-sensitive. Every buyer walking through your home is doing the math on a 7%+ mortgage.
That means two things matter more than ever:
- Price it right from day one. Overpriced homes sit, then get reduced, and buyers notice.
- Be open to credits instead of price cuts. Offering a credit toward a buydown can help a buyer more than an equal price drop, and it can protect your sale price.
If you’re thinking about listing before spring, the next few months can work well. You’ll face less competition from other listings, and the buyers who are out are motivated.
If You Already Own a Home
If you have a mortgage in the 3s, 4s, or 5s, there’s nothing you need to do — that rate is locked in, and it’s a real asset. Hold onto it.
Where the Fed’s decision does hit homeowners directly is variable-rate debt. HELOC rates are tied to the prime rate, which follows the Fed. With the Fed holding steady, your HELOC rate shouldn’t jump this month, but it also isn’t getting cheaper. If you’re carrying a balance, it’s worth looking at a payoff plan rather than counting on relief.
And if you’ve been weighing a move-up or a downsize, the math is personal. Sometimes giving up a low rate still makes sense because of what the next home does for your life. I’m happy to sit down and run it with you, no pressure.
My Honest Take
The Fed is in wait-and-see mode, and so is a lot of the market. I don’t expect a big drop in mortgage rates before the end of the year, and I’d be skeptical of anyone who promises one.
But Redding real estate doesn’t stop because rates are high. People still get new jobs, have kids, retire, and need a different home. The buyers and sellers who do well right now are the ones who look at their own numbers clearly, instead of waiting for headlines to make the decision for them.
Let’s talk about your next move. If you want to know what today’s rates mean for your situation — buying, selling, or just planning ahead — I’m always glad to help.
530-953-1100 · jcreteam.com/contact · [email protected]
About Justin Cartwright — Justin Cartwright is a third-generation Shasta County resident and licensed REALTOR® with Waterman Real Estate in Redding, CA. He and the JCRE Team specialize in helping buyers and sellers navigate the Redding and greater Shasta County market with honest guidance and genuine care. DRE License #02093872 · Waterman Real Estate, 1760 Churn Creek Rd, Redding, CA 96002 · 530-953-1100.
Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC statement (October 28, 2026); Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (October 22, 2026); Zillow Home Value Index for Shasta County (August 2026); LocalAlpha Redding metro market brief (August 2026). Payment examples are principal and interest only, for illustration.
